Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola has starkly assessed his team's chances of progressing in the Champions League, claiming they have just a "1%" probability of overcoming Real Madrid in their crucial second-leg playoff clash at the Bernabéu on Wednesday.
The Spanish giants, fresh from securing their record 16th Champions League title with a victory over Borussia Dortmund at Wembley last season, gained the upper hand in the tie with a dramatic 3-2 win at the Etihad. Madrid's late resurgence saw them score twice in the final four minutes, nullifying Erling Haaland's earlier double and turning a 2-1 deficit into a victory.
City's historical record at the Bernabéu adds weight to Guardiola's pessimistic outlook, with the English club having secured just one victory at the iconic stadium - a 2-1 triumph in a round-of-16 match in February 2020. Now facing elimination, City must achieve a win against Carlo Ancelotti's formidable side to keep their European dreams alive.
"The margin to win in Bernabéu in that position [3-2 down], everybody knows that if you ask before the game, the percentage to go through, I don't know, we arrive at 1%, or I don't know what," Guardiola acknowledged. "It will be minimal, but as much as you have a chance, we will try, that's for sure, you know?"
The situation reflects a broader pattern in what has been City's most challenging season under Guardiola's leadership since his arrival in 2016. The team has suffered 12 defeats across all competitions and saw their title hopes fade by mid-season. However, a convincing 4-0 victory against Newcastle on Saturday has provided a glimmer of hope for a potential turnaround.
Reflecting on his team's inconsistent form, Guardiola admitted, "Listen, there are many, many games that we didn't play the level we play, and at the end, we lost it. And that was not just the three points, it's how it is affecting our minds for the next game. It happened a lot of times. This season, the reality is that we have been miles, miles away."
Despite the daunting task ahead, Guardiola remains determined to seize even the slimmest chance of progression, emphasizing that while their opportunity may be "minimal," they will pursue it with everything they have when they take to the field in Madrid.
